SMU Election Project Florida

Election Wrap Up

2008-11-07T09:36:00.000-08:00

No Senate Race.

US HOUSE: District 16 was riddled with scandal all year.
Republican Mark Foley of West Palm Beach battled issues of scandal. Then his opponent the democrat, Mahoney, was served with divorce papers after allegedly having inappropriate sexual relations with a campaign worker. It ended up to be a lucky break for the Republican Rooney an attorney and retired marine corps officer best known for his family’s ownership position with the Pittsburg Steelers, he won the seat.

Gay marriage amendment prohibiting same sex marriage needed pass by 60 percent and passed by 62 percent.

The big one.

Very popular and once considered VP prospect, Gov. Charlie Crist, was unable to deliver Florida for McCain. As expected the SE went Obama, this area caters to northern transplants.

The I-4 corridor, the highly contested “decider” of the state, went for Obama. The population along these counties consist of 1st time Hispanic voters, a group the Republicans typically draw well from. Hillsborough county typically votes with dems. The growth of central Florida within Orlando’s Orange and Volusia counties alluded to the possibility of the region going with Obama.

The areas surrounding the universities, FSU and UF, also went for Obama. A change from the 2004 election shows the surrounding areas turning more “purple.” Researchers are led to believe that more and more government officials or university workers are moving further away from campus, which caused this demographic change.

Obama won 51/49.

The winner is

2008-11-03T07:36:00.000-08:00

Endorsements for Obama

2008-11-02T06:41:00.000-08:00

Daytona Beach News-Journal Kerry ‘04
Florida Today (Melbourne) Kerry ‘04

The Gainesville Sun Kerry ‘04
The Ledger (Lakeland) Bush ‘04
The Miami Herald Kerry ‘04
Naples Daily-News Bush ‘04
Orlando Sentinel Kerry ‘04
The Palm Beach Post (West Palm Beach) Kerry ‘04
Pensacola News Journal N/A '04
St. Petersburg Times Kerry ‘04
Sarasota Herald-Tribune Kerry ‘04
South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Ft. Lauderdale) Kerry ‘04

Obama picked up two Bush endorsements but the most interesting is the Pensacola News Journal. The paper's readership is considered some of the most conservative in the state.

2008-10-30T11:07:00.000-07:00

The Gov will campaing with John McCain as he zig zags across the state. Wednesday and Thursday stops include: Tampa and Miami
Sen. Mel Martinez on how the Latino vote may paint Florida Blue.

Caroline Kennedy will be in the Tampa Bay Area, Fort Myers and West Palm Beach.

Proof that the I-4 markets are powerful... The Republican Trust PAC introduced Jeremiah Wright to the area.

Biden was in New Port Richie Wednesday.

Wednesday- Obama was in Sunrise for his multimillion dollar infomercial and Orlando with Bill Clinton. He will continue to back down 75 to Sarasota Thursday morning.

They continue to flock

2008-10-27T07:17:00.000-07:00

Matt Damon is wrapping up his appearance today at Florida's VoteFest '08, which encourages early voting. The often outspoken supporter of Obama posed with a cardboard cut of the the Democratic hopeful during the event.

She just looks like a Republican!

2008-10-26T15:56:00.000-07:00

Sarah was in Tampa with 5,000 supporters sporting “They’ll know we are Christians by our vote” t-shirts. The question remains why Palin’s scheduling staff booked the event during Sunday Worship hours.

The View’s lone conservative introduced Palin and again brought up this weeks zinger, the $150,000 wardrobe. Palin said, “I'm trying to ignore this because it's so ridiculous.” She compares them to the lighting and staging, which belong to the RNC that she is not taking with her. Palin goes on to say, “I'm back to wearing my own clothes from my favorite consignment shop in Anchorage, Alaska.” Shhh don’t tell Nancy Regan, she may fall and break the other hip.

Sandy Shores Await!

2008-10-26T15:53:00.000-07:00

With less than 10 days until Election Day, the candidates and surrogates are flocking like snow birds to Florida. Even Joe the Plummer likes to visit the state’s sandy shores…

Welcome back Sarah! She hosted rallies in Kissimee, Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Obama, finally, made it to Miami! (10/21) We were all wondering when you would go down there and schlep for yourself! Sadly, the sound bite is “I’ve got nothing but love for Joe the plumber” maybe Aunt Ida would have appreciated a shout out.

Oddly Enough— Black students interrupted Obama during a rally, they were quickly escorted out.

This is not the first time African-American Floridian’s have gotten testy with the Democratic candidate. Here is the video from earlier this summer where he called my hometown “feisty.”

McCain- The Joe the Plumber Tour is in full swing. The GOP nominee had coffee with his wife, the Governor and four local businessmen to talk about taxes and other campaign issues. (10/23)

Later that day, radio ads of Governor aired in support of the McCain Ticket.

McCain is finally getting some help from the state’s party, RPOF. They mailed a “blistering report of Obama on “Soft Crime.”

Cindy and Rudy made surprise visits to the Victory office in Orlando (10/25)

2008-10-24T10:52:00.000-07:00

Many who know more that I do on the matter claim that the 1-4 corridor – from Orlando down through the Bay Area—will be the deciding region for the state. However, with ten days to go in this election the buzz is about baseball not politics. The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Boston Red Sox in an emotional Game 7 to be named ALCS Champions. Passed over VP pick, Gov. Charlie Crist, has even thrown out the 1st pitch. Now the Rays are playing the Phillies for the World Series.You want to talk about the American Dream or a story of rags to riches? The Rays have the lowest salary cap in the league, last year finished DEAD LAST, season ticket holders were bailing by the hundreds.... Now, those faithful yet fed up fans are let scrabbling for seats. Local and state politicians a like are cutting their hair into “Rayhawks” for charity functions and Obama’s ads are drowned out by “more cowbell.”

Today, the race is too close to call. Obama is gaining in many of the state polls yet early voting shows stronger GOP participation. This one is going to come down to the last out in the bottom of the ninth.

Voting trouble again?

2008-10-14T22:04:00.000-07:00

Will there ever be a time when voting will go smoothly in Florida. A recent AP article said that the Orange County Election's office wrongfully told 1,400 voters that they had missed the registration date for the November Election.

The error in the letters, sent to both Republicans and Democrats, was blamed on a "bug" in the system.

Linda Tanko, a senior deputy supervisor in the elections office, said, "No good deed goes unpunished. We were equal-opportunity offenders."

The Great Schlep

2008-10-14T12:02:00.000-07:00

Comedian Sarah Siverman strikes again with her "Great Schlep" Campaign. She urges young Jewish voters to go down to Florida and visit their grandparents but there's a catch, vote for Obama.

Silverman says,"If you knew that visiting your grandparents could change the world, would you do it? Of course you would." What started as an oline effort has gain momentum as grandkids are criss-crossing the country armed with stratigic talking points. Silverman claims that a vote for Obama will equal another visit but if not "hope they stay healthy 'til next year."

The battle of the surrogates continues

2008-10-11T12:11:00.000-07:00

The proxy campaign from The Buzz:

John McCain and Barack Obama have sent some friends to Florida.

McCain: Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson visits the GOP "victory" office in West Palm Beach at 4 p.m. today. Saturday, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal will tailgate with fans at the Florida-LSU game in Gainesville.

Obama: Today, U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey drops by a senior center in Little Havana (his parents are Cuban immigrants) in Miami, holds a town hall meeting on the economy at Florida International University and then visits a phone bank. On Sunday, U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer of California begins a three-day swing by visiting a West Palm Beach phone bank. Saturday and Sunday, U.S. Rep. Yvette Clarke of New York will travel to South Florida to promote Obama to members of the Caribbean community. To address his NRA critics, Obama is sending Ray Schoenke, president of the American Hunters and Shooters Association, to Orlando, Lakeland, Ocala, Micanopy and Palatka on Saturday to talk about support for gun rights.

Leave it to a Floridian...

2008-10-09T11:26:00.000-07:00

"...the next Vice President of the United States, John McCain!" Yikes!!

Click here to read the interview with the St. Petersburg Times that followed

From the National Journal's Hotline

2008-10-08T22:36:00.000-07:00

FL Dems 10/7 "touted voter registration figures showing 'another huge surge' in party ranks that gives Barack Obama an edge" in the state. With the registration period ending 10/6, Dems this year signed up 360K new voters through 9/30, "nearly twice as many" as the 190K that signed up as GOPers. Nearly half of new Dems "are under 35." Overall, through 9/30, the state's electorate is now 41.3% Dem, 36% GOP and 22.7% indie. "Final figures" through the end of the registration period "won't be available for a few weeks."

Obama FL co-chair/Rep. Robert Wexler (D-19): "These registration numbers are indicative of the level of excitement and energy behind Barack Obama. For Democrats, it bodes well."

Palm Beach Co. GOP Chair Sid Dinerstein: "It always makes it harder if the other side registers more voters. But we're going to keep fighting the good fight."

The VP's in the Bay Area: Welcome to the I-4 corridor

With Obama leading in South FL, and John McCain "well ahead" in North FL and SW Florida, "the decisive battleground could be the Tampa Bay area." In recent elections, "the results from the five-county region have been virtually identical to the statewide totals." Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker: "Tampa Bay has always been the most pivotal area."

Joe Biden heads to the Tampa Bay area today, where Obama prepared for the first pres. debate "two weeks ago." Biden will hold rallies in Tampa and Fort Myers. Sarah Palin was in Clearwater 10/6.

2008-10-05T16:54:00.000-07:00

One indicator that Florida’s battleground state status continues to grow... the sheer number of political surrogates who have flooded the state over the last week.

Obama has not personally been stirring things up in the Sunshine State everyone from his wife to Jay Z has done it for him. For a more complete list click here.

Michelle Obama and Jill Biden hit the trail headlining a rally at FAMU.

Want to know how your Representative voted for the rescue plan? Click here for a listing of how each Representative voted on the 1st Bill and Here for the 2nd piece of legislation.

Some Florida election officials spent two days talking to the troops in Afghanistan about voting in the presidential race. MacDill Air Force Base locate in Tampa houses the following headquarters: United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM),United States Special Operations Central Command (USSOCCENT).

The Palm Beach Post reported that “As of Friday, nearly 1.4 million Floridians had requested absentee ballots and 78,666 had returned their votes” the majority of those request came from Republicans.

Lieberman will be back in South Florida attempting to court the Jewish vote on Monday.

Sarah Palin will make her second trip to the state making appearences in Clearwater, Fort Myers, Jacksonville and Pensacola. Excitement is so high in Pensecola it is rumored that the location has been changed from a plane hanger to the civic center.

SNL’s Tina Fey as Sarah Palin was back this weekend. The voters of Florida were spotlighted on the national platform. Fey parodied Gov. Palin’s “love fest with Israel” by saying, “From a very young age my greatest lovers were Jews and Cuban Food.” Need a good laugh?

Bloggers have been commenting all over the place about these clips my favorite has to be “SNL is an equal opportunity destroyer. They mocked both candidates and the moderator with equally devastating effect…Welcome to the Century of the Idiot.”

Floridians vote...

2008-09-28T15:38:00.000-07:00

No one needs to tell a Floridian how important it is to vote. We are constantly reminded of our states election blunders and the hundred of votes that decided the President. This increased voter accountability results in many potentially adverse effects. Voters here scrutinize candidates and thanks to the states 27 electorates there are many opportunities for candidate “face time.”

Florida has historically had high voter turn out in elections. The strength of the primary vote tells us that party bases here are strong.

The economy is the #1 issue nation but the state has been hit hard by the housing bubble pop especially with increasing insurance cost in the region. Faith is running low when it comes to economic topics statewide. The politically fresh-faced Obama tends to have the lead on this topic but that may not hold true in Florida. Remember, Mitt Romney with his deep seeded economic background did well in this state

The NYTimes recent article titled "As Homes Are Lost, Fears That Votes Will Be," Too outlined the challenge for exciting ex-homeowners in this election. A logistical problem, many of those displaced citizens were unaware that they needed to update their voter registration. “Our biggest concern is that many of these voters will stay home or that poll workers will give misinformation,” said Rosemary E. Rodriguez, the chairwoman of the federal Election Assistance Commission, which oversees voting.

What’s race got to do with it?

A constant challenge for both candidates in the state is the Jewish population. They are unimpressed with the Palin pick but even wearier of all things Obama. These are Hillary people. The Clintons understand and respect this demographic. Former President Clinton said that he would not campaign during the Jewish holiday Rosh Hasanah that will take him off line from sundown Monday to sunrise Wednesday.

An elderly woman recently told the Daily Show, bluntly, "A lot of Jewish white people here will not vote for a black man." Well there you have it!

The 1st presidential debate held at the University of Mississippi failed to address a crucial section of foreign policy… Iran/Israel. Click here for the complete transcript.

McCain did say, “Now we cannot a second Holocaust. Let's just make that very clear. “

Obama responded with, “Senator McCain is absolutely right, we cannot tolerate a nuclear Iran. It would be a game changer. Not only would it threaten Israel, a country that is our stalwart ally, but it would also create an environment in which you could set off an arms race in this Middle East.”

McCain brought up Obama’s desire “sit down with Ahmadinejad, Chavez and Raul Castro without precondition. Without precondition… Ahmadinejad, who is, Ahmadinejad, who is now in New York, talking about the extermination of the State of Israel, of wiping Israel off the map, and we're going to sit down, without precondition, across the table, to legitimize and give a propaganda platform to a person that is espousing the extermination of the state of Israel, and therefore then giving them more credence in the world arena and therefore saying, they've probably been doing the right thing, because you will sit down across the table from them and that will legitimize their illegal behavior.”

This was as close as an answer the Jewish community received on each candidate’s stance on Israel.

It's Late Septemeber in an Election Year...

2008-09-22T08:19:00.000-07:00

There is a cool breeze in the air, football and political ads fill up television air time. It’s late September during an election year. The baseball diamond is on fire as the race for October heats up. It’s late September during an election year. The Presidential hopefuls are bring out the big guns and stirring up trouble. Proof that it’s late September during an election year.

Here are this weekend’s headlines from the Sunshine State:

The Republican National Committee and McCain mass mailed Republican “Party Affiliation voter registration cards” to Democrats all across the state. The mailer was sent to voters of all ages. Many voters we left felling confused and called local officials to voice their concerns. RNC spokesperson, Amber Wilkerson, said it was a routine fundraiser intended for Republicans much like the ones used previously. "In the event that it was sent to Democrats, we correct our internal file to ensure that that doesn't happen in the future," she says.

Obama’s here!

Obama and his campaign are making up for lost time here in Florida. Since the state party moved up the primary the two major candidates chose not to campaign here. Obama spent a long weekend here telling donors in Miami “I’ll tell you, we can win this thing without Florida, but boy, it’s a lot easier if we win Florida.” He will travel up the coast to Daytona Beach and close the day with a women’s rally in Jacksonville.

The following video is from his Miami Rally:

His rally Saturday night drew 12,000 onlookers and many more looked on from the outskirts of Metropolitan Park.

Initial reports from the St. Petersburg Times The Buzz and the LA Times say that Obama will be making another trip to state midweek in hopes of cramming for his 1st one-on-one debate with McCain at Ole Miss Friday night. Currently, there are no scheduled appearances. Déjà vu? Gore set up camp twice in Florida in 2000 before his debates…

The hottest VP in the hottest State

Palin continues to work wonders in specific demographics for McCain. The Alaskan Governor spent her weekend in Central Florida at the retirement community “The Villages.” Depending on the source you chose to site, attendance ranged from 25,000 to 60,000 on a traditionally warm September afternoon. This was Palin’s first campaign visit to the state and the only public appearance. The Palin Family spent time at “the happiest place on earth” …unless you’ve been there in the summer…
Disney World.

The following video is from her rally in Lady Lake, Fl. Sadly, there are no pics of Trig at the Magic Kingdom.

Appearing this week...

2008-09-16T15:42:00.000-07:00

From tampabay.com's Political Editor

John McCain will conclude a two-day swing through the states most populated cities. Monday he visited Jacksonville, Orlando and Miami. Today, McCain will host his first post-convention rally at the Tampa Convention Center.

Obama’s camp plans to fundraise in Miami’s elite Coral Cables neighborhood but not public appearances have been scheduled.

Sunday, Gov. Sarah Palin plans to visit the retiree-filled Villages no doubt attracting a huge crowd. This is will Palin’s 1st appearance in the state.

And the 27 electoral votes go to…

2008-09-14T18:01:00.000-07:00

Sen. John McCain!

For the last two Presidential cycles, the national election theater spotlighted the most southern state in the Union, Florida. The curse of the chad… They were pregnant, hanging and blistered. The next President of the United States held in the balance of a few counties in South Florida. The state government has focused funds and efforts on previsions to avoid national embarrassment a third time.

A few factors leading to a GOP win

Gov. Charlie Crist- The popular 1st term governor gave McCain a well-timed endorsement, which clinched the nomination. Crist was also rumored to be on McCain’s short list for VP until the surprising announcement of Sarah Palin.

Retirees- The median age continues to drop in the state but the fact remains that the area invites the country's retirees. This generation votes touting the highest turnout across the demographics. The state houses hundred of thousands of veterans according to the National Journal’s Almanac 15 percent of population identifies themselves as vets.

State Legislature – A Republican dominated state House and Senate allows for increased party support and movement around the state.

Challenges

The Hispanic Vote – Florida cannot be won without the almost 3 million Hispanic-origin Floridians. Strong racial divisions between the Hispanic and African American community may prove to be a challenge for the Obama-Biden ticket.

The South Florida Jewish Community—Historically, major Democrat supporters and voters, the Jewish community remains skittish over Sen. Obama as outlined by a recent Financial Times article. “There are some people who still believe Obama is a Muslim or that he is not a friend of Israel,” says Randy Wolfgang. Some resentment has risen over Obama’s choice to send the popular former First Lady to campaign in the region on his behalf. McCain’s choice of an enthusiastic pro-life Christian does not resonate much better.

Obama's Challenge

2008-09-08T16:24:00.000-07:00

The Orlando Sentinel published an article identifying a potential problem for the Democratic ticket in the Sunshine State, attracting the Hispanic vote.

It is imperative for Obama to prove himself as the candidate who can go beyond the everyday stereotyped differences that separate blacks and Hispanics.

For many it comes down to a matter of employment, those who previously hired African-Americans now find Hispanic to be equal but economically more desirable, cheaper.

A 2006 protest on immigration reform featured the Hispanic community even though African-American leadership supported the effort their people did not join in.

Former President of the Orange branch NAACP said, “I don't think there's been a great effort on the part of the African-American and Latino communities to join efforts.” A potential saving grace; Hispanics in Central Florida, 14 percent of the regions registered voters, are predominantly Democratic and fiercely loyal to party affiliations.

Welcome

2008-09-08T12:10:00.000-07:00

Welcome to the state of Florida's page for the Southern Methodist Election Project. The Corporate Communication and Public Affairs department's Political Communications class will be charting all 50 states in the Union during the 2008 Election Season.